This Just in, The Recession is over!

This past Sunday I took a new listing in Elkridge, Maryland. It is a nice house in great shape and is priced around $450,000. Within a half hour of entering the home in the computer, I got a call from a fellow agent to show the house and she delivered an offer to me that evening. In 25 years this may be the fastest that I have ever seen an offer come in on a listing of mine. And this seems to be happening on a lot of homes. The housing market in the Metro area is not just recovering but is "hot" and taking off. Purchasers have been flocking to open houses and I know for a fact that three new listings out of my office had multiple contracts presented this week after just going on the market. Only three months ago agents were crying about how nobody was showing their listings. Now, just a few months later my fellow agents are crying about the shortage of suitable houses to show their clients! It has been that way in Montgomery County for about a month now and I am seeing this market activity expand out to Howard, and Frederick Counties in the past two weeks or so. The DC market is a little different as it has been very hot since the middle of last year.

Well, I am a bit cautious as I know that there are still things that have to be sorted out in Europe and many parts of the US still have an oversupply of homes on the market. In addition, we still have good number of distressed homes that will come on the market both in the region and nationwide. However, the expanding market is to me a refection in a resurgence of consumer confidence. I firmly believe that where the housing market goes the economy will follow. Right now it looks pretty darn good to me and this is the first time in over four years that I can say that. Let's see how this plays out.

Where are we going?

Well, there is not much I can say about the housing doldrums that we are going through right now. However, I caution all against using this recession as a gauge for analysing the housing market in Montgomery County and the metropolitan area. Housing prices go up and down with the economy-there is no secret about that and with the large recession of the past few years prices are down. I have seen it before and know that you cannot allow a few years of recession to bias your thoughts about property ownership. I tell all my clients that real estate should always be looked upon as a long term investment. If you happen to buy at the right time and reap the benefit of a rising market, so be it. However, you can also get caught with your fingers singed if you purchase at the wrong time and are looking for a quick gain.

Now, just look at Montgomery County and the long term projections for population growth. With just over a million residents now, it is projected that the population of the county may double within the next 25 years. With this influx of people comes job growth and most importantly demand for housing. People have to have homes and the fact is that much of the county has already been built out. There are two predictions that are of interest. One, is that due to the lack of suitable housing more people will be forced to live further out from their jobs (Frederick, Howard, Anne Arundel Counties) and commute longer distances. And as a result, the demand for homes that are in Montgomery County will be very high. So high in fact that the long term concern is that there will be a critical shortage of housing in the county far into the future and that home values "will go up" to the point where new residents will be priced out of the market.

In short, more people and not enough homes. What does this tell you about the overall value of homes in Montgomery County? This is not rocket science. If you can look beyond the current recession then you will see that over the long term this is a great place to buy property. It has been for the last half century. Recessions come and go but for the long term, owning a home in Montgomery County is a good thing. I would think that this data applies to the Washington Metro Area in general and expect the housing market for the overall area to be strong once the economy gets back on track. In short, buy property and plan on holding it. Property in the area is cheap now. It won't be for long

Montgomery County's Fiscal Woes. Part 1

Well, the county is pretty much out of money. They are looking for ways to raise revenues but the issue becomes where and how to squeeze the public without the public screaming and kicking back. The problem is that there is no way that they can raise property taxes. Already having sucked that cow dry when times were good they are now in a pickle as to where to turn. The solution seems to raise fees. Everywhere you look fees are going up. Parking, tickets, licensing fees, recordation fees, library fees and death fees. Not only is this happening in our county but everywhere. National, state and local governments used to feeding off property taxes have turned to increased fees to cover the shortfall. And I ask you who is not feeling these costs.

The big issue to me is how do they expect for any sort of recovery to occur if they are slamming consumers with burdensome fee hikes. I did not have a bad year this past year but am feeling the pinch of higher fees so both my wife and I don't feel like we can spend any money. I can't see how all of these fee hikes are going to do much for our household income. So nobody feels any wealthier and nobody feels like spending money. And getting people to spend money is how you dig yourself out of a recession.

This seems to happen every time we have a downturn. I wonder why the hell can't our elected officials figure this out when the economy is booming and set aside reserves for the slow times. I suppose it is just human nature and the way our system works. When we have it, we spend it all and then when we don't have it we fly into a panic. The public then suffers because there are few options to getting lost revenue unless they squeeze the cow a bit more.